Andrew Mount Horse Racing Tips – Wednesday September 29
Another column of horse betting advice written by industry insider Andrew Mount has eight bets for this Wednesday. After more than two decades in the business, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster shares his systems with punters. Andrew is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, The Weekender and the Racing & Football Outlook, and his advice appears on GG.co.uk. He also appears on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV as an expert. Andrew is looking for unique statistical angles for his bets and that creates practical systems!
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Andrew has a lot of top to bottom fancies from the UK today. Read all about his selections from Bangor, Catterick, Kempton and Nottingham below:
1.00 – GABRIELLA’S SPIRIT (system – jockey Jason Hart on sprinters)
Jason Hart has a reputation for being good at sprinters and his actual / expected score in 5f-6f races over the past five seasons is 1.19 in good health (he has mounted 178 winners, while the market said it should have been closer to 149). We would have wasted money supporting them blindly but, focusing on the best races (class 4 or above), we would have made a profit of £ 83.01 for a £ 1 upgrade at SP during the same period.
THE SPIRIT OF GABRIELLA trailed at home last of eight on his debut at Catterick in May, but rested for four months after that and came back to finish a solid 50-1 third at Haydock. This form was reinforced when the second did better in the Ayr listed company, so it can take off here.
Return Gabriella’s Spirit at SBK
1.30 – PADDY’S FANCY (systems – New Bay 2 years and New Bay 2 years on grass on 7f +)
PADDY FANTASY was the last of eight at Newcastle on her recent debut, but the move to turf will suit and she could take a big step forward with that outing behind her. Supporting New Bay’s juvenile offspring on their second career start reportedly found 16 winners out of 86 runners (18.6% strike rate) for £ 18.88 profit for a £ 1 upgrade.
Siding with all New Bay two-year-olds over 7f + on the turf, no matter how many races they had, produced 21 winners out of 78 bets (27%) for a profit of £ 51.45. The Racing Post fabric price has her at 66-1 and, with her little team in good shape, she could laugh at those odds.
Bet on Paddy’s Fancy at SBK
1.40 – ROBIN DES THEATER (system – Michael Scudamore beginners for handicap hunting)
The runners coached by Michael Scudamore have a good record in their debut in the handicap hunt, with 11 of 59 qualifiers winning for a profit of £ 28.75 for the usual £ 1 stake. Those who passed obstacles, like THEATER ROBIN DES here has a record ten out of 44 for a profit of £ 37.75.
Return Robin Des Theater at SBK
3.10 – ZAFAR (system – handicap hurdles Donald McCain in Bangor)
My favorite system for Bangor is to side with whatever Donald McCain saddles in handicap hurdles. Since the start of 2011, this angle has taken 46 winners of 232 bets (19.8% strike rate) for a profit of £ 88.33 to a £ 1 upgrade at SP.
In the same time frame, if we had only supported those who enjoyed a recent exit (in the last 28 days), we would have found 33 winners out of 106 bets (31.1%) for a huge profit of £ 121.57 (nearly 115% of sales). ZAFAR has two wins and a close second to his name on three points for McCain and again holds solid claims.
Bet on Zafar at SBK
3.20 – LOBO DEL MAR (system – The progeny of Fountain Of Youth goes from AW to turf)
The Fountain of Youth offspring do a lot better on the turf than on the All-Weather, so just supporting them when they come back to the grass is a profitable angle. LOBO DEL MAR Clearly isn’t a star, but he was only beaten by 1 1/2 lengths when he was fifth at Wolverhampton last time around and could squeeze into the frame at a hefty price.
Return Lobo Del Mar to SBK
3.50 – RAIN CAP (system – Fountain of Youth on grass, recent release)
RAIN CAP also represents Fountain Of Youth and, while he doesn’t change All-Weather like Lobo Del Mar, he qualifies on the recent racing angle. Supporting all of this bull’s offspring on turf after a recent outing (within 28 days) would have yielded a whopping £ 282.13 profit for a £ 1 upgrade at SP. Rain Cap was an 18-1 winner on this system in August, so he can justify support in both directions despite his unfavorable trip.
Bet on Rain Cap at SBK
5.30 – HEERATTHETRACK (system – Jessica Ennis dam with AW runners)
The vast majority of my breeding systems are about the sire, not the dam but Jessica Ennis is one of the exceptions. It has spawned a number of useful All-Weather Interpreters. If we had backed them all we would have won 15 of our 57 bets (26.3%) and made a profit of £ 49.95 for a stake of £ 1.
HEATING ON THE TRACK has attracted attention on both of his runs so far, finishing fourth at 200-1 in a 7f Wolverhampton maiden before his 28-1 third from 14 over 7f here at Kempton. The step up to 1m will be fine and while it’s likely we won’t see the best of him until he’s disabled, he still deserves a two-way street interest.
Bet on Heeratthetrack at SBK
6.00 – TIGER CRUSADE (system – sire Siyouni on Polytrack, 4 years +)
Siyouni’s descendants have a strong track record on Polytrack and they also improve with age. If we had backed those aged four or older on the All-Weather at Chelmsford, Dundalk, Kempton or Lingfield – the four sites in Britain and Ireland with this surface – we would have won 23 of our 113 bets (rate of 20.4% strike) and made a profit of £ 58.95 for a £ 1 upgrade at SP. TIGER CRUSADE, well drawn in stall 3, has Polytrack shape digits of 4312 (1-4) and should be roughly once more.
Return Tiger Crusade to SBK
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